I’d call this fuzzy math, except that it’s really a matter of interpretation and ZDNet has decided to go for the most inflammatory headline that they could find:
“NPD: Apple will lose quarter of tablet market by 2017”
Lose. Not that it will own 50% of a market that is predicted to be 5x larger than it is today, but rather that it will lose ¼th of its market share.
Let’s look at the real numbers to see how much Apple will be “losing”.
Ars Technica says that the most recent numbers show Apple holding 68% of a market that shipped 17.4 million units in Q1 of 2012. NPD predicts that, by 2017, annual shipments will equal 424.9 million tablets. By quarter, that’s 106 million units.
NPD then posits that Apple will control roughly 50% of the...